In the end Hurricane Earl was more than many had perhaps expected. One reason was undoubtedly that the early forecast tracks had the system passing much farther to the North than it eventually did.
As such, it is an important lesson to keep in mind that predictions are based on preliminary computer models and while experience has shown that while they are generally fairly accurate, there is always a margin of error. A few degrees to the North or South, a sudden change in speed or even a minor increase in size or intensity can make a huge difference.
In hindsight the islands where this newspaper is published can count themselves lucky that Earl passed to the North – be it much closer than originally anticipated – while the worst part of a hurricane is usually on the North side of the system, also in terms of the reach of the strongest winds. For this reason, even though Earl passed some 25 miles from St. Maarten and hurricane strength winds officially extended outward some 45 miles from the centre, this apparently was not the case for the Southern part of the system and the islands thus apparently were spared the most destructive winds.
Moreover, while Earl reached the area as a category 1 hurricane and quickly grew to a category 2, it luckily did not become a category 3 until it had already passed. Nevertheless, the effects were felt locally much longer than just a few hours in the morning as some had foreseen, but well into the afternoon.
Apart from the storm's characteristics, a relatively late warning when it came to the Dutch side may have had something to do with the extent of the impact taking some by surprise. While a tropical storm watch had been issued for the French side on Friday (see Saturday paper), that was not the case for the Windward Islands until the next day and the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) only convened on Sunday at noon.
As it was the beginning of the weekend, many may have read the paper on Saturday morning thinking it was not going to be that serious and may have gone about their regular business rather than making the necessary preparations, until they were alerted by others. French authorities have sometimes been accused of "crying wolf" too often too quickly when it comes to bad weather, but one could also argue that it's better to be safe than sorry.
It is with this in mind that an extra effort was made to publish today's paper, with the cooperation of local authorities, despite the fact that it could not be distributed until the curfew ended at noon. Please note that Tropical Storm Fiona is expected in the local area tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.
